Who will win Brighton vs Sunderland?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BHA goals down, SUN goals across
| BHA ↓ | SUN 0 | SUN 1 | SUN 2 | SUN 3 | SUN 4 | SUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA 0 | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| BHA 1 | 8.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BHA 2 | 10.5% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BHA 3 | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| BHA 4 | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| BHA 5 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.9%.
Brighton v Sunderland
Onside's model gives Brighton a 58% chance of beating Sunderland in Gameweek 35, with 23% on the draw and 19% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 2–1 Sunderland, from expected goals of 2.28 to 0.93. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).