Who will win Coventry City vs Manchester City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
COV goals down, MCI goals across
| COV ↓ | MCI 0 | MCI 1 | MCI 2 | MCI 3 | MCI 4 | MCI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COV 0 | 5.8% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| COV 1 | 2.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| COV 2 | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| COV 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| COV 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| COV 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (0–2); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.7%.
Coventry City v Manchester City
Onside's model gives Coventry City a 15% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 29, with 24% on the draw and 61% on an away win. The score prediction is Coventry City 0–2 Manchester City, from expected goals of 0.78 to 2.25. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).