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Sat 13 Mar · 15:00 UK · GW29 · model pl-dc-v2

Liverpool v Ipswich Town

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 29, from expected goals of 2.40 to 0.88. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
LIV win
66%
Draw
20%
IPS win
14%
Score pick
2–0
most likely 2–0
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Liverpool vs Ipswich Town?

The Onside model makes Liverpool the more likely winner of Liverpool vs Ipswich Town in Gameweek 29: Liverpool 66%, draw 20%, Ipswich Town 14%. The score pick is Liverpool 2–0 Ipswich Town, and the single most probable scoreline is 2–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LIV goals down, IPS goals across

LIV ↓IPS 0IPS 1IPS 2IPS 3IPS 4IPS 5
LIV 04.7%2.4%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
LIV 18.1%8.9%3.5%1.0%0.2%0.0%
LIV 210.8%9.6%4.2%1.2%0.3%0.0%
LIV 38.6%7.6%3.4%1.0%0.2%0.0%
LIV 45.2%4.6%2.0%0.6%0.1%0.0%
LIV 52.5%2.2%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.5%.

Your call
AI calls
2–0
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.40 — 0.88
★ MODE
2–0
10.8%
2–1
9.6%
1–1
8.9%
3–0
8.6%
1–0
8.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
64%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Liverpool
Attack ranks #5 and defence #3 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Ipswich Town
Attack ranks #12, defence #20. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.40–0.88.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW29 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Liverpool
4-5-1
GK
A.Becker
DEF
Virgil, Jacquet, Kerkez, Araujo
MID
Wirtz, Mac Allister, Barcola, Gakpo, Munoz
FWD
Isak
  • Frimpong — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
  • Ekitiké — Achilles injury - Unknown return date
  • Jaros — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Bradley — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Leoni — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Gravenberch 75% — Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH
FULL LIV LINE-UP →
Ipswich Town
4-5-1
GK
Walton
DEF
O'Shea, Davis, Diop, Ouattara
MID
Enciso, Palacios, Florentino, Fatawu, Philogene
FWD
Emersonn
  • Lukić 75% — Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL IPS LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW3Ipswich Town vs Liverpool prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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