QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Leeds United vs Brentford?

Leeds United 11 Brentford. Before kick-off the model gave Leeds United 37%, the draw 29% and Brentford 34%, with a score pick of 11. Every prediction is published before the match and never revised.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LEE goals down, BRE goals across

LEEBRE 0BRE 1BRE 2BRE 3BRE 4BRE 5
LEE 09.8%8.6%6.2%2.5%0.8%0.2%
LEE 19.0%14.4%7.8%3.2%1.0%0.2%
LEE 26.7%8.1%5.0%2.0%0.6%0.2%
LEE 32.8%3.4%2.1%0.9%0.3%0.1%
LEE 40.9%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
LEE 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.4%.

Full time · GW2 · model pl-market-v2

Leeds United v Brentford11

Onside's model gives Leeds United a 37% chance of beating Brentford in Gameweek 2, with 29% on the draw and 34% on an away win. The score prediction is Leeds United 11 Brentford, from expected goals of 1.27 to 1.22. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Leeds United
37%
Draw
29%
Brentford
34%
Model pick: 11 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Was the model right?
Model pick · locked pre-kickoff
10
Final score
11
Graded
0 · missed

Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.271.22
★ MODE
11
14.4%
00
9.8%
10
9.0%
01
8.6%
21
8.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
45%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
52%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Leeds United
Attack ranks #11 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Brentford
Attack ranks #8, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.271.22.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW32Brentford vs Leeds predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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