QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Brentford 3–0 Tottenham Hotspur. Before kick-off the model gave Brentford 44%, the draw 26% and Tottenham Hotspur 30%, with a score pick of 2–1. Every prediction is published before the match and never revised.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BRE goals down, TOT goals across

BRE ↓TOT 0TOT 1TOT 2TOT 3TOT 4TOT 5
BRE 07.4%5.1%3.5%1.2%0.3%0.1%
BRE 19.1%12.6%6.0%2.2%0.6%0.1%
BRE 29.1%9.7%5.2%1.9%0.5%0.1%
BRE 35.3%5.6%3.0%1.1%0.3%0.1%
BRE 42.3%2.4%1.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
BRE 50.8%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Full time · GW1 · model pl-market-v2

Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur3–0

Onside's model gives Brentford a 44% chance of beating Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 1, with 26% on the draw and 30% on an away win. The score prediction is Brentford 2–1 Tottenham Hotspur, from expected goals of 1.74 to 1.07. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Brentford
44%
Draw
26%
Tottenham Hotspur
30%
Model pick: 2–1 · most probable 1–1
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Was the model right?
Model pick · locked pre-kickoff
1–0
Final score
3–0
Graded
+2 · right result

Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.74 — 1.07
★ MODE
1–1
12.6%
2–1
9.7%
1–0
9.1%
2–0
9.1%
0–0
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 60 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brentford
Attack ranks #7 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #13, defence #9. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.74–1.07.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW31Spurs vs Brentford prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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