QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brighton vs Arsenal?

Brighton 30 Arsenal. Before kick-off the model gave Brighton 35%, the draw 28% and Arsenal 37%, with a score pick of 12. Every prediction is published before the match and never revised.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BHA goals down, ARS goals across

BHAARS 0ARS 1ARS 2ARS 3ARS 4ARS 5
BHA 07.6%7.7%6.8%3.3%1.2%0.4%
BHA 16.6%13.4%8.8%4.4%1.6%0.5%
BHA 25.3%7.8%5.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
BHA 32.3%3.4%2.5%1.2%0.5%0.1%
BHA 40.7%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
BHA 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Full time · GW5 · model pl-dc-v2

Brighton v Arsenal30

Onside's model gives Brighton a 35% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 5, with 28% on the draw and 37% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 12 Arsenal, from expected goals of 1.30 to 1.48. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Brighton
35%
Draw
28%
Arsenal
37%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Was the model right?
Model pick · locked pre-kickoff
11
Final score
30
Graded
0 · missed

Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.301.48
★ MODE
11
13.4%
12
8.8%
21
7.8%
01
7.7%
00
7.6%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brighton
Attack ranks #2 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Arsenal
Attack ranks #3, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.301.48.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW38Arsenal vs Brighton predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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