Arsenal v Brighton
Who will win Arsenal vs Brighton?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, BHA goals across
| ARS ↓ | BHA 0 | BHA 1 | BHA 2 | BHA 3 | BHA 4 | BHA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 10.0% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 1 | 11.3% | 13.7% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| ARS 2 | 9.7% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 3 | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 4 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Raya
- DEF
- Gabriel, Konsa, Calafiori, White
- MID
- Rice, Ødegaard, Madueke, Tzolis, Bruno G.
- FWD
- Havertz
- Saka — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Dowman — Suspended until 29 Nov
- GK
- Verbruggen
- DEF
- Vuskovic, De Cuyper, Boscagli, Dunk, F.Kadıoğlu
- MID
- Gomez, Groß, Ayari, Andrés
- FWD
- Kostoulas
- Struijk — Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
- Yohanna — Unspecified injury - Expected back 22 Nov
- Mitoma — Hamstring injury - Expected back 22 Nov
- Azeez — Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
- Tzimas — Knee injury - Unknown return date
- F.Kadıoğlu 75% — Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.
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