Who will win Chelsea vs Brentford?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, BRE goals across
| CHE ↓ | BRE 0 | BRE 1 | BRE 2 | BRE 3 | BRE 4 | BRE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| CHE 1 | 5.3% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| CHE 2 | 5.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| CHE 3 | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| CHE 4 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.6%.
Chelsea v Brentford
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 37% chance of beating Brentford in Gameweek 38, with 25% on the draw and 38% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Brentford, from expected goals of 1.83 to 1.51. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).