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Sun 30 May · 16:00 UK · GW38 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester United v Fulham

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 38, from expected goals of 1.54 to 0.99. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
MUN win
39%
Draw
30%
FUL win
31%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester United vs Fulham?

The Onside model makes Manchester United the more likely winner of Manchester United vs Fulham in Gameweek 38: Manchester United 39%, draw 30%, Fulham 31%. The score pick is Manchester United 1–0 Fulham, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MUN goals down, FUL goals across

MUN ↓FUL 0FUL 1FUL 2FUL 3FUL 4FUL 5
MUN 09.4%6.4%3.9%1.3%0.3%0.1%
MUN 110.8%13.6%6.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%
MUN 29.4%9.3%4.6%1.5%0.4%0.1%
MUN 34.8%4.8%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%
MUN 41.9%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
MUN 50.6%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
·
–
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locks Sun 16:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.54 — 0.99
★ MODE
1–1
13.6%
1–0
10.8%
2–0
9.4%
0–0
9.4%
2–1
9.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
46%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
51%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester United
Attack ranks #8 and defence #14 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Fulham
Attack ranks #18, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.54–0.99.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW38 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Manchester United
4-6-0
GK
Lammens
DEF
Maguire, Dalot, Yoro, Heaven
MID
Mbeumo, B.Fernandes, Amad, Andrey Santos, Tielemans, Cunha
  • Shaw — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
  • Martinez — Suspended until 22 Nov
  • Šeško — Shin injury - Unknown return date
  • Dorgu — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
  • Ugarte — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Rashford 75% — Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Baleba 50% — Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH
FULL MUN LINE-UP →
Fulham
4-5-1
GK
Leno
DEF
Bassey, Affengruber, Robinson, Castagne
MID
Iwobi, King, Bobb, Charles, Berge
FWD
Gonzalo

No injury or suspension flags.

TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL FUL LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW5Fulham vs Man Utd prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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