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Sun 30 May · 16:00 UK · GW38 · model pl-dc-v2

Ipswich Town v Everton

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 38, from expected goals of 1.17 to 1.34. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
IPS win
32%
Draw
28%
EVE win
40%
Score pick
0–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Ipswich Town vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Ipswich Town vs Everton in Gameweek 38: Ipswich Town 32%, draw 28%, Everton 40%. The score pick is Ipswich Town 0–1 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

IPS goals down, EVE goals across

IPS ↓EVE 0EVE 1EVE 2EVE 3EVE 4EVE 5
IPS 09.6%9.3%7.3%3.2%1.1%0.3%
IPS 18.0%14.3%8.5%3.8%1.3%0.3%
IPS 25.6%7.5%5.0%2.2%0.7%0.2%
IPS 32.2%2.9%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
IPS 40.6%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
IPS 50.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.4%.

Your call
AI calls
0–1
Your call
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–
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locks Sun 16:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.17 — 1.34
★ MODE
1–1
14.3%
0–0
9.6%
0–1
9.3%
1–2
8.5%
1–0
8.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
46%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
53%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Ipswich Town
Attack ranks #12 and defence #20 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Everton
Attack ranks #16, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.17–1.34.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW38 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Ipswich Town
4-5-1
GK
Walton
DEF
O'Shea, Davis, Diop, Ouattara
MID
Enciso, Palacios, Florentino, Fatawu, Philogene
FWD
Emersonn
  • Lukić 75% — Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL IPS LINE-UP →
Everton
4-5-1
GK
Pickford
DEF
Tarkowski, Mykolenko, Branthwaite, O'Brien
MID
Dewsbury-Hall, Garner, Armstrong, Röhl, George
FWD
Barry

No injury or suspension flags.

TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL EVE LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW5Everton vs Ipswich Town prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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