QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Manchester United the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United in Gameweek 37: Tottenham Hotspur 30%, draw 27%, Manchester United 43%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 12 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, MUN goals across

TOTMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
TOT 07.0%7.4%6.8%3.6%1.4%0.4%
TOT 16.0%12.9%9.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%
TOT 24.9%7.6%6.0%3.1%1.2%0.4%
TOT 32.1%3.4%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.2%
TOT 40.7%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%
TOT 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.

Sun 23 May · 15:00 UK · GW37 · model pl-dc-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 30% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 37, with 27% on the draw and 43% on an away win. The score prediction is Tottenham Hotspur 12 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.32 to 1.57. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Tottenham Hotspur
30%
Draw
27%
Manchester United
43%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.321.57
★ MODE
11
12.9%
12
9.0%
21
7.6%
01
7.4%
00
7.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #12 and defence #12 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #8. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.321.57.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW6Man Utd vs Spurs predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Prediction — GW37 Score