What is the predicted score for Everton vs Arsenal?

The model's score pick is Everton 0–1 Arsenal; the single most probable scoreline is 0–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sun 23 May · 15:00 UK · GW37 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Arsenal

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 37, from expected goals of 0.66 to 1.37. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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EVE win

24%

Draw

34%

ARS win

42%

Score pick

0–1

most likely 0–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Arsenal?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Everton vs Arsenal in Gameweek 37: Everton 24%, draw 34%, Arsenal 42%. The score pick is Everton 0–1 Arsenal, and the single most probable scoreline is 0–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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EVE 24%

DRAW 34%

ARS 42%

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, ARS goals across

EVE ↓	ARS 0	ARS 1	ARS 2	ARS 3	ARS 4	ARS 5
EVE 0	14.6%	16.7%	12.4%	5.6%	1.9%	0.5%
EVE 1	7.2%	13.3%	8.1%	3.7%	1.3%	0.3%
EVE 2	2.8%	3.9%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
EVE 3	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
EVE 4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
EVE 5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (0–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.

Your call

Everton

Arsenal

AI calls

0–1

Your call

–

locks Sun 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.66 — 1.37

★ MODE

0–1

16.7%

0–0

14.6%

1–1

13.3%

0–2

12.4%

1–2

8.1%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

33%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

37%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Everton

Attack ranks #16 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Arsenal

Attack ranks #4, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 0.66–1.37.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW37 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Everton

4-5-1