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Sun 23 May · 15:00 UK · GW37 · model pl-dc-v2

Brentford v Hull City

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 37, from expected goals of 1.81 to 0.91. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
BRE win
56%
Draw
25%
HUL win
19%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brentford vs Hull City?

The Onside model makes Brentford the more likely winner of Brentford vs Hull City in Gameweek 37: Brentford 56%, draw 25%, Hull City 19%. The score pick is Brentford 1–0 Hull City, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BRE goals down, HUL goals across

BRE ↓HUL 0HUL 1HUL 2HUL 3HUL 4HUL 5
BRE 07.9%4.7%2.7%0.8%0.2%0.0%
BRE 110.6%12.1%4.9%1.5%0.3%0.1%
BRE 210.8%9.8%4.5%1.4%0.3%0.1%
BRE 36.5%5.9%2.7%0.8%0.2%0.0%
BRE 42.9%2.7%1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
BRE 51.1%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.1%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
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locks Sun 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.81 — 0.91
★ MODE
1–1
12.1%
2–0
10.8%
1–0
10.6%
2–1
9.8%
0–0
7.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
51%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
51%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brentford
Attack ranks #6 and defence #8 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Hull City
Attack ranks #15, defence #15. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.81–0.91.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW37 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Brentford
3-6-1
GK
Kelleher
DEF
Ajer, Kayode, Van den Berg
MID
Lewis-Potter, Janelt, Schade, Jensen, O.Dango, M.Sangaré
FWD
Thiago
  • Furo — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
  • Henry — Hip injury - Unknown return date
  • Carvalho — Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
  • Milambo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Dasilva — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL BRE LINE-UP →
Hull City
5-4-1
GK
Tzolakis
DEF
Ajayi, Coyle, Egan, Giles, Mendy
MID
Slater, Belloumi, Stroud, Iroegbunam
FWD
McBurnie
  • Targett — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Crooks — Suspended until 22 Nov
  • Hughes — Groin injury - Unknown return date
  • Matazo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Gyabi — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Butland 50% — Arm injury - 50% chance of playing
  • Gourna-Douath 75% — Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL HUL LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW8Hull City vs Brentford prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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