What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Aston Villa?

The model's score pick is Manchester City 2–1 Aston Villa; the single most probable scoreline is 1–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sun 23 May · 15:00 UK · GW37 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester City v Aston Villa

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 37, from expected goals of 2.02 to 0.98. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

Beat the model →Our record →

MCI win

59%

Draw

23%

AVL win

18%

Score pick

2–1

most likely 1–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester City vs Aston Villa?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Manchester City vs Aston Villa in Gameweek 37: Manchester City 59%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 18%. The score pick is Manchester City 2–1 Aston Villa, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

BUILD YOUR FPL SQUAD FREE →

MCI 59%

DRAW 23%

AVL 18%

Every scoreline, priced

MCI goals down, AVL goals across

MCI ↓	AVL 0	AVL 1	AVL 2	AVL 3	AVL 4	AVL 5
MCI 0	6.2%	3.7%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
MCI 1	8.9%	11.0%	4.8%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
MCI 2	10.2%	10.0%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
MCI 3	6.9%	6.7%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
MCI 4	3.5%	3.4%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
MCI 5	1.4%	1.4%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.8%.

Your call

Manchester City

Aston Villa

AI calls

2–1

Your call

–

locks Sun 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

2.02 — 0.98

★ MODE

1–1

11.0%

2–0

10.2%

2–1

10.0%

1–0

8.9%

3–0

6.9%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

58%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

55%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Manchester City

Attack ranks #2 and defence #4 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Aston Villa

Attack ranks #10, defence #9. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.02–0.98.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW37 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Manchester City

4-5-1