Who will win Chelsea vs Liverpool?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, LIV goals across
| CHE ↓ | LIV 0 | LIV 1 | LIV 2 | LIV 3 | LIV 4 | LIV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| CHE 1 | 4.8% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| CHE 2 | 4.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| CHE 3 | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| CHE 4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.
Chelsea v Liverpool
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 31% chance of beating Liverpool in Gameweek 14, with 25% on the draw and 44% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 1–2 Liverpool, from expected goals of 1.57 to 1.68. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).