What is the predicted score for Everton vs Fulham?

The model's score pick is Everton 1–0 Fulham; the single most probable scoreline is 1–0.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sun 6 Dec · 14:00 UK · GW14 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Fulham

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 14, from expected goals of 1.17 to 0.82. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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EVE win

42%

Draw

32%

FUL win

26%

Score pick

1–0

most likely 1–0

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Fulham?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Everton vs Fulham in Gameweek 14: Everton 42%, draw 32%, Fulham 26%. The score pick is Everton 1–0 Fulham, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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EVE 42%

DRAW 32%

FUL 26%

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, FUL goals across

EVE ↓	FUL 0	FUL 1	FUL 2	FUL 3	FUL 4	FUL 5
EVE 0	15.2%	9.6%	4.6%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%
EVE 1	14.4%	14.7%	5.4%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%
EVE 2	9.3%	7.7%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
EVE 3	3.6%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
EVE 4	1.1%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
EVE 5	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (0–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.2%.

Your call

Everton

Fulham

AI calls

1–0

Your call

–

locks Sun 14:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.17 — 0.82

★ MODE

0–0

15.2%

1–1

14.7%

1–0

14.4%

0–1

9.6%

2–0

9.3%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

32%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

40%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Everton

Attack ranks #16 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Fulham

Attack ranks #18, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.17–0.82.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW14 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Everton

4-5-1