QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Fulham vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Fulham vs Everton in Gameweek 34: Fulham 34%, draw 31%, Everton 35%. The score pick is Fulham 11 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

FUL goals down, EVE goals across

FULEVE 0EVE 1EVE 2EVE 3EVE 4EVE 5
FUL 013.1%11.2%7.2%2.7%0.7%0.2%
FUL 110.4%15.1%7.5%2.8%0.8%0.2%
FUL 26.3%7.0%3.9%1.5%0.4%0.1%
FUL 32.2%2.4%1.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%
FUL 40.6%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
FUL 50.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.2%.

Sat 1 May · 15:00 UK · GW34 · model pl-dc-v2

Fulham v Everton

Onside's model gives Fulham a 34% chance of beating Everton in Gameweek 34, with 31% on the draw and 35% on an away win. The score prediction is Fulham 11 Everton, from expected goals of 1.05 to 1.11. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Fulham
34%
Draw
31%
Everton
35%
Model pick: 11 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.051.11
★ MODE
11
15.1%
00
13.1%
01
11.2%
10
10.4%
12
7.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
37%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
45%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Fulham
Attack ranks #17 and defence #13 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Everton
Attack ranks #15, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.051.11.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW14Everton vs Fulham predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Fulham vs Everton Prediction — GW34 Score & Win Probability