QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 34: Arsenal 66%, draw 23%, Tottenham Hotspur 11%. The score pick is Arsenal 10 Tottenham Hotspur, and the single most probable scoreline is 20. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, TOT goals across

ARSTOT 0TOT 1TOT 2TOT 3TOT 4TOT 5
ARS 07.3%3.3%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
ARS 111.8%10.1%3.2%0.8%0.1%0.0%
ARS 213.3%9.4%3.3%0.8%0.1%0.0%
ARS 39.2%6.5%2.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 44.8%3.4%1.2%0.3%0.0%0.0%
ARS 52.0%1.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (20); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.9%.

Sat 1 May · 15:00 UK · GW34 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 66% chance of beating Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 34, with 23% on the draw and 11% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 10 Tottenham Hotspur, from expected goals of 2.08 to 0.71. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
66%
Draw
23%
Tottenham Hotspur
11%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 20
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.080.71
★ MODE
20
13.3%
10
11.8%
11
10.1%
21
9.4%
30
9.2%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
45%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #3 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #12, defence #12. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.080.71.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW14Spurs vs Arsenal predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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