Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, MUN goals across
| CHE ↓ | MUN 0 | MUN 1 | MUN 2 | MUN 3 | MUN 4 | MUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| CHE 1 | 4.1% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| CHE 2 | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| CHE 3 | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| CHE 4 | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| CHE 5 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.7%.
Chelsea v Manchester United
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 54% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 9, with 22% on the draw and 24% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Manchester United, from expected goals of 2.12 to 1.60. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 60 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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