QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Leeds United the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Leeds United in Gameweek 8: Sunderland 31%, draw 30%, Leeds United 39%. The score pick is Sunderland 01 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, LEE goals across

SUNLEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
SUN 010.9%10.2%7.4%3.1%1.0%0.3%
SUN 18.8%14.6%8.3%3.5%1.1%0.3%
SUN 25.7%7.3%4.6%1.9%0.6%0.2%
SUN 32.1%2.7%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.1%
SUN 40.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
SUN 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.

Sun 25 Oct · 16:30 UK · GW8 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 31% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 8, with 30% on the draw and 39% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 01 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.11 to 1.26. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
31%
Draw
30%
Leeds United
39%
Model pick: 01 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.111.26
★ MODE
11
14.6%
00
10.9%
01
10.2%
10
8.8%
12
8.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
42%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
50%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #16 and defence #17 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #11, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.111.26.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW37Leeds vs Sunderland predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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