QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?

The Onside model makes Newcastle United the more likely winner of Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United in Gameweek 8: Crystal Palace 35%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 38%. The score pick is Crystal Palace 12 Newcastle United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CRY goals down, NEW goals across

CRYNEW 0NEW 1NEW 2NEW 3NEW 4NEW 5
CRY 05.4%6.0%6.3%3.7%1.6%0.6%
CRY 14.7%11.7%9.1%5.3%2.3%0.8%
CRY 24.3%7.5%6.5%3.8%1.6%0.6%
CRY 32.1%3.6%3.1%1.8%0.8%0.3%
CRY 40.7%1.3%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
CRY 50.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.

Sun 25 Oct · 14:00 UK · GW8 · model pl-dc-v2

Crystal Palace v Newcastle United

Onside's model gives Crystal Palace a 35% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 8, with 27% on the draw and 38% on an away win. The score prediction is Crystal Palace 12 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 1.44 to 1.74. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Crystal Palace
35%
Draw
27%
Newcastle United
38%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.441.74
★ MODE
11
11.7%
12
9.1%
21
7.5%
22
6.5%
02
6.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
62%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
64%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #13 and defence #18 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #7, defence #16. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.441.74.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW37Newcastle vs Crystal Palace predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United Prediction — GW8 Score