Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
LIV goals down, ARS goals across
| LIV ↓ | ARS 0 | ARS 1 | ARS 2 | ARS 3 | ARS 4 | ARS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV 0 | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| LIV 1 | 7.0% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| LIV 2 | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| LIV 3 | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| LIV 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| LIV 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.
Liverpool v Arsenal
Onside's model gives Liverpool a 28% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 9, with 30% on the draw and 42% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal, from expected goals of 1.14 to 1.46. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 60 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).