What is the predicted score for Everton vs Sunderland?

The model's score pick is Everton 1–0 Sunderland; the single most probable scoreline is 1–0.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 26 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW17 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Sunderland

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 17, from expected goals of 1.34 to 0.75. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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EVE win

49%

Draw

30%

SUN win

21%

Score pick

1–0

most likely 1–0

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Sunderland?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Everton vs Sunderland in Gameweek 17: Everton 49%, draw 30%, Sunderland 21%. The score pick is Everton 1–0 Sunderland, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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EVE 49%

DRAW 30%

SUN 21%

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, SUN goals across

EVE ↓	SUN 0	SUN 1	SUN 2	SUN 3	SUN 4	SUN 5
EVE 0	13.9%	7.8%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
EVE 1	15.1%	13.9%	4.7%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
EVE 2	11.1%	8.3%	3.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
EVE 3	4.9%	3.7%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
EVE 4	1.7%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
EVE 5	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.

Your call

Everton

Sunderland

AI calls

1–0

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.34 — 0.75

★ MODE

1–0

15.1%

1–1

13.9%

0–0

13.9%

2–0

11.1%

2–1

8.3%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

35%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

40%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Everton

Attack ranks #16 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Sunderland

Attack ranks #19, defence #16. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.34–0.75.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW17 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Everton

4-5-1