Aston Villa v Leeds United
Who will win Aston Villa vs Leeds United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
AVL goals down, LEE goals across
| AVL ↓ | LEE 0 | LEE 1 | LEE 2 | LEE 3 | LEE 4 | LEE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL 0 | 11.7% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| AVL 1 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| AVL 2 | 8.8% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| AVL 3 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| AVL 4 | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AVL 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Suzuki
- DEF
- Lindelöf, Maatsen, Pau, Mings
- MID
- Kamara, Manzambi, McGinn, Gomes, Alysson
- FWD
- N.Jackson
- Cash — Suspended until 21 Nov
- Wan-Bissaka — Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
- Ruggeri — Hamstring injury - Expected back 2 Jan
- Onana — Knee injury - Unknown return date
Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.
- GK
- Trafford
- DEF
- Bogle, Muharemović, Justin, Gudmundsson, Elvedi
- MID
- Ampadu, Tanaka, Wilson, James
- FWD
- Calvert-Lewin
- Mateo Joseph — Knee injury - Unknown return date
- Calvert-Lewin 75% — Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
- Stach 50% — Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
- Okafor 50% — Thigh injury - 50% chance of playing
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.