Who will win Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, AVL goals across
| CHE ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHE 1 | 4.9% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| CHE 2 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| CHE 3 | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| CHE 4 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.1%.
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 56% chance of beating Aston Villa in Gameweek 16, with 22% on the draw and 22% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Aston Villa, from expected goals of 2.28 to 1.38. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 60 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).