Chelsea v Aston Villa
Who will win Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, AVL goals across
| CHE ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHE 1 | 6.6% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| CHE 2 | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| CHE 3 | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| CHE 4 | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.8%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Penders
- DEF
- Colwill, Acheampong, Fofana, Palestra
- MID
- Rogers, Palmer, Neto, Caicedo, Henderson, Lavia
- João Pedro — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Lacroix — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
- James — Knee injury - Unknown return date
- Martinez — Head injury - Unknown return date
- Hato — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
- Henderson 75% — Illness - 75% chance of playing
- GK
- Suzuki
- DEF
- Lindelöf, Maatsen, Pau, Mings
- MID
- Kamara, Manzambi, McGinn, Gomes, Alysson
- FWD
- N.Jackson
- Cash — Suspended until 21 Nov
- Wan-Bissaka — Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
- Ruggeri — Hamstring injury - Expected back 2 Jan
- Onana — Knee injury - Unknown return date
Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.