QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brentford vs Newcastle United?

The Onside model makes Brentford the more likely winner of Brentford vs Newcastle United in Gameweek 16: Brentford 52%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 23%. The score pick is Brentford 21 Newcastle United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BRE goals down, NEW goals across

BRENEW 0NEW 1NEW 2NEW 3NEW 4NEW 5
BRE 05.6%4.5%3.8%1.7%0.6%0.1%
BRE 16.6%11.7%6.9%3.1%1.0%0.3%
BRE 27.1%9.4%6.3%2.8%0.9%0.2%
BRE 34.3%5.7%3.8%1.7%0.6%0.1%
BRE 41.9%2.6%1.7%0.8%0.3%0.1%
BRE 50.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Sat 19 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW16 · model pl-dc-v2

Brentford v Newcastle United

Onside's model gives Brentford a 52% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 16, with 25% on the draw and 23% on an away win. The score prediction is Brentford 21 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 1.81 to 1.33. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Brentford
52%
Draw
25%
Newcastle United
23%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.811.33
★ MODE
11
11.7%
21
9.4%
20
7.1%
12
6.9%
10
6.6%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
61%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brentford
Attack ranks #8 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #7, defence #16. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.811.33.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW27Newcastle vs Brentford predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW16 predictions
Brentford vs Newcastle United Prediction — GW16 Score