QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Newcastle United vs Brentford?

The Onside model makes Brentford the more likely winner of Newcastle United vs Brentford in Gameweek 27: Newcastle United 34%, draw 27%, Brentford 39%. The score pick is Newcastle United 21 Brentford, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

NEW goals down, BRE goals across

NEWBRE 0BRE 1BRE 2BRE 3BRE 4BRE 5
NEW 05.8%5.5%5.1%2.6%1.0%0.3%
NEW 15.8%12.1%8.2%4.1%1.6%0.5%
NEW 25.7%8.6%6.5%3.3%1.2%0.4%
NEW 33.0%4.6%3.5%1.7%0.7%0.2%
NEW 41.2%1.8%1.4%0.7%0.3%0.1%
NEW 50.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Sat 27 Feb · 15:00 UK · GW27 · model pl-dc-v2

Newcastle United v Brentford

Onside's model gives Newcastle United a 34% chance of beating Brentford in Gameweek 27, with 27% on the draw and 39% on an away win. The score prediction is Newcastle United 21 Brentford, from expected goals of 1.59 to 1.51. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Newcastle United
34%
Draw
27%
Brentford
39%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.591.51
★ MODE
11
12.1%
21
8.6%
12
8.2%
22
6.5%
10
5.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #7 and defence #16 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Brentford
Attack ranks #8, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.591.51.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW16Brentford vs Newcastle predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Newcastle United vs Brentford Prediction — GW27 Score