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Sat 19 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW16 · model pl-dc-v2

Leeds United v Fulham

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 16, from expected goals of 1.21 to 0.85. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
LEE win
44%
Draw
31%
FUL win
25%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 1–0
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Leeds United vs Fulham?

The Onside model makes Leeds United the more likely winner of Leeds United vs Fulham in Gameweek 16: Leeds United 44%, draw 31%, Fulham 25%. The score pick is Leeds United 1–0 Fulham, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LEE goals down, FUL goals across

LEE ↓FUL 0FUL 1FUL 2FUL 3FUL 4FUL 5
LEE 014.3%9.2%4.6%1.3%0.3%0.0%
LEE 113.9%14.7%5.5%1.6%0.3%0.1%
LEE 29.4%7.9%3.4%0.9%0.2%0.0%
LEE 33.8%3.2%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%
LEE 41.2%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
LEE 50.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.2%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.21 — 0.85
★ MODE
1–1
14.7%
0–0
14.3%
1–0
13.9%
2–0
9.4%
0–1
9.2%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
34%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
42%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Leeds United
Attack ranks #13 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Fulham
Attack ranks #18, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.21–0.85.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW16 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Leeds United
5-4-1
GK
Trafford
DEF
Bogle, Muharemović, Justin, Gudmundsson, Elvedi
MID
Ampadu, Tanaka, Stach, Wilson
FWD
Calvert-Lewin
  • Mateo Joseph — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Okafor 75% — Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL LEE LINE-UP →
Fulham
4-5-1
GK
Leno
DEF
Bassey, Affengruber, Robinson, Castagne
MID
Iwobi, King, Bobb, Charles, Berge
FWD
Gonzalo

No injury or suspension flags.

TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL FUL LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW27Fulham vs Leeds prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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