QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Manchester United in Gameweek 16: Arsenal 57%, draw 24%, Manchester United 19%. The score pick is Arsenal 10 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, MUN goals across

ARSMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
ARS 06.8%4.0%2.5%0.8%0.2%0.0%
ARS 19.6%11.4%4.8%1.5%0.4%0.1%
ARS 210.5%9.9%4.7%1.5%0.3%0.1%
ARS 36.9%6.5%3.0%1.0%0.2%0.0%
ARS 43.4%3.2%1.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 51.3%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.5%.

Sat 19 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW16 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 57% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 16, with 24% on the draw and 19% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 10 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.95 to 0.94. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
57%
Draw
24%
Manchester United
19%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.950.94
★ MODE
11
11.4%
20
10.5%
21
9.9%
10
9.6%
30
6.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #3 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #8. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.950.94.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW27Man Utd vs Arsenal predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction — GW16 Score & Win Probability