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Mon 14 Dec · 20:00 UK · GW15 · model pl-dc-v2

Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 15, from expected goals of 1.10 to 1.28. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
HUL win
37%
Draw
31%
TOT win
32%
Score pick
0–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Hull City vs Tottenham Hotspur?

The Onside model makes Hull City the more likely winner of Hull City vs Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 15: Hull City 37%, draw 31%, Tottenham Hotspur 32%. The score pick is Hull City 0–1 Tottenham Hotspur, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

HUL goals down, TOT goals across

HUL ↓TOT 0TOT 1TOT 2TOT 3TOT 4TOT 5
HUL 010.8%10.3%7.6%3.2%1.0%0.3%
HUL 18.6%14.6%8.3%3.6%1.1%0.3%
HUL 25.6%7.2%4.6%2.0%0.6%0.2%
HUL 32.0%2.6%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.1%
HUL 40.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
HUL 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.

Your call
AI calls
0–1
Your call
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locks Mon 20:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.10 — 1.28
★ MODE
1–1
14.6%
0–0
10.8%
0–1
10.3%
1–0
8.6%
1–2
8.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
42%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
50%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Hull City
Attack ranks #15 and defence #15 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #11, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.10–1.28.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW15 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Hull City
5-4-1
GK
Tzolakis
DEF
Ajayi, Coyle, Egan, Giles, Mendy
MID
Slater, Belloumi, Stroud, Iroegbunam
FWD
McBurnie
  • Targett — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Crooks — Suspended until 22 Nov
  • Hughes — Groin injury - Unknown return date
  • Matazo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Gyabi — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Butland 50% — Arm injury - 50% chance of playing
  • Gourna-Douath 75% — Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL HUL LINE-UP →
Tottenham Hotspur
3-5-2
GK
Kinsky
DEF
Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson
MID
Tonali, Gray, Kudus, Fernandes, Tel
FWD
Marmoush, Solanke
  • Richarlison — not included in squad.
  • Sávio — Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Tosin — Calf injury - Unknown return date
  • Bergvall — Knee injury - Expected back 31 Oct
  • Mudryk — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL TOT LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW33Spurs vs Hull City prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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