Who will win Manchester City vs Chelsea?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, CHE goals across
| MCI ↓ | CHE 0 | CHE 1 | CHE 2 | CHE 3 | CHE 4 | CHE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| MCI 1 | 5.0% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| MCI 2 | 7.1% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| MCI 3 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| MCI 4 | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| MCI 5 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.7%.
Manchester City v Chelsea
Onside's model gives Manchester City a 59% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 15, with 22% on the draw and 19% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 2–1 Chelsea, from expected goals of 2.39 to 1.30. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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