Chelsea v Manchester City
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, MCI goals across
| CHE ↓ | MCI 0 | MCI 1 | MCI 2 | MCI 3 | MCI 4 | MCI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| CHE 1 | 4.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| CHE 2 | 4.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| CHE 3 | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| CHE 4 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.6%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Penders
- DEF
- Colwill, Acheampong, Fofana, Palestra
- MID
- Rogers, Palmer, Neto, Caicedo, Henderson, Lavia
- João Pedro — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Lacroix — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
- James — Knee injury - Unknown return date
- Martinez — Head injury - Unknown return date
- Hato — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
- Henderson 75% — Illness - 75% chance of playing
- GK
- Donnarumma
- DEF
- Rúben, Matheus N., Gvardiol, Guéhi
- MID
- Ndiaye, Anderson, Enzo, Doku, Cherki
- FWD
- Haaland
- Semenyo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.
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