QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Everton vs Brighton in Gameweek 33: Everton 33%, draw 29%, Brighton 38%. The score pick is Everton 01 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, BHA goals across

EVEBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
EVE 09.1%9.5%8.0%3.8%1.4%0.4%
EVE 17.1%13.9%9.0%4.3%1.6%0.5%
EVE 24.9%7.0%5.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
EVE 31.8%2.6%1.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%
EVE 40.5%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
EVE 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Sat 24 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW33 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Brighton

Onside's model gives Everton a 33% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 33, with 29% on the draw and 38% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 01 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.13 to 1.44. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Everton
33%
Draw
29%
Brighton
38%
Model pick: 01 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Your call
AI calls
0–1
Your call
·
·
locks Sat 14:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.131.44
★ MODE
11
13.9%
01
9.5%
00
9.1%
12
9.0%
02
8.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
47%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
53%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #15 and defence #4 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #2, defence #6. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.131.44.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW15Brighton vs Everton predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW33 predictions
Everton vs Brighton Prediction — GW33 Score & Win Probability