Who will win Aston Villa vs Coventry City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
AVL goals down, COV goals across
| AVL ↓ | COV 0 | COV 1 | COV 2 | COV 3 | COV 4 | COV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL 0 | 8.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| AVL 1 | 11.4% | 12.0% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| AVL 2 | 11.5% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| AVL 3 | 7.0% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| AVL 4 | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| AVL 5 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.1%.
Aston Villa v Coventry City
Onside's model gives Aston Villa a 55% chance of beating Coventry City in Gameweek 33, with 26% on the draw and 19% on an away win. The score prediction is Aston Villa 1–0 Coventry City, from expected goals of 1.82 to 0.85. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).