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Sun 13 Dec · 19:00 UK · GW15 · model pl-dc-v2

Crystal Palace v Manchester United

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 15, from expected goals of 1.24 to 1.70. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
CRY win
33%
Draw
28%
MUN win
39%
Score pick
1–2
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Manchester United the more likely winner of Crystal Palace vs Manchester United in Gameweek 15: Crystal Palace 33%, draw 28%, Manchester United 39%. The score pick is Crystal Palace 1–2 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CRY goals down, MUN goals across

CRY ↓MUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
CRY 06.6%7.6%7.6%4.3%1.8%0.6%
CRY 15.2%12.5%9.5%5.3%2.3%0.8%
CRY 24.1%6.9%5.9%3.3%1.4%0.5%
CRY 31.7%2.9%2.4%1.4%0.6%0.2%
CRY 40.5%0.9%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.1%
CRY 50.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Your call
AI calls
1–2
Your call
·
–
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locks Sun 19:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.24 — 1.70
★ MODE
1–1
12.5%
1–2
9.5%
0–1
7.6%
0–2
7.6%
2–1
6.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #14 and defence #19 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #8, defence #14. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.24–1.70.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW15 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace
5-4-1
GK
Benitez
DEF
Mitchell, Richards, Canvot, Khalaili, Disasi
MID
Wharton, Kamada, Yeremy, McNeil
FWD
Strand Larsen
  • Mateta — Suspended until 2 Dec
  • Sarr — Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Tomiyasu — Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Chadi Riad — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Uche — has returned to Getafe CF
  • Strand Larsen 75% — Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Timber 75% — Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL CRY LINE-UP →
Manchester United
4-6-0
GK
Lammens
DEF
Maguire, Dalot, Yoro, Heaven
MID
Mbeumo, B.Fernandes, Amad, Andrey Santos, Tielemans, Cunha
  • Shaw — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
  • Martinez — Suspended until 22 Nov
  • Šeško — Shin injury - Unknown return date
  • Dorgu — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
  • Ugarte — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Rashford 75% — Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Baleba 50% — Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH
FULL MUN LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW33Man Utd vs Crystal Palace prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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