Who will win Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, BOU goals across
| ARS ↓ | BOU 0 | BOU 1 | BOU 2 | BOU 3 | BOU 4 | BOU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 1 | 11.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 2 | 12.3% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 3 | 8.4% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 4 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.8%.
Arsenal v Bournemouth
Onside's model gives Arsenal a 59% chance of beating Bournemouth in Gameweek 15, with 25% on the draw and 16% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 1–0 Bournemouth, from expected goals of 2.04 to 0.79. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).