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Sat 12 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW15 · model pl-dc-v2

Fulham v Brentford

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 15, from expected goals of 1.09 to 1.35. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
FUL win
31%
Draw
29%
BRE win
40%
Score pick
0–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Fulham vs Brentford?

The Onside model makes Brentford the more likely winner of Fulham vs Brentford in Gameweek 15: Fulham 31%, draw 29%, Brentford 40%. The score pick is Fulham 0–1 Brentford, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

FUL goals down, BRE goals across

FUL ↓BRE 0BRE 1BRE 2BRE 3BRE 4BRE 5
FUL 010.3%10.3%7.9%3.6%1.2%0.3%
FUL 18.0%14.4%8.6%3.9%1.3%0.4%
FUL 25.2%7.0%4.7%2.1%0.7%0.2%
FUL 31.9%2.5%1.7%0.8%0.3%0.1%
FUL 40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
FUL 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.4%.

Your call
AI calls
0–1
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.09 — 1.35
★ MODE
1–1
14.4%
0–0
10.3%
0–1
10.3%
1–2
8.6%
1–0
8.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
44%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
51%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Fulham
Attack ranks #18 and defence #10 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Brentford
Attack ranks #6, defence #8. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.09–1.35.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW15 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Fulham
4-5-1
GK
Leno
DEF
Bassey, Affengruber, Robinson, Castagne
MID
Iwobi, King, Bobb, Charles, Berge
FWD
Gonzalo

No injury or suspension flags.

TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL FUL LINE-UP →
Brentford
3-6-1
GK
Kelleher
DEF
Ajer, Kayode, Van den Berg
MID
Lewis-Potter, Janelt, Schade, Jensen, O.Dango, M.Sangaré
FWD
Thiago
  • Furo — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
  • Henry — Hip injury - Unknown return date
  • Carvalho — Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
  • Milambo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Dasilva — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL BRE LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW33Brentford vs Fulham prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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