Who will win Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
SUN goals down, NFO goals across
| SUN ↓ | NFO 0 | NFO 1 | NFO 2 | NFO 3 | NFO 4 | NFO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUN 0 | 11.4% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| SUN 1 | 10.8% | 14.7% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| SUN 2 | 7.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| SUN 3 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| SUN 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| SUN 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.
Sunderland v Nottingham Forest
Onside's model gives Sunderland a 38% chance of beating Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 15, with 30% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 1–0 Nottingham Forest, from expected goals of 1.25 to 1.06. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).