What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Everton?

The model's score pick is Sunderland 1–1 Everton; the single most probable scoreline is 1–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 20 Feb · 15:00 UK · GW26 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Everton

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 26, from expected goals of 0.91 to 1.10. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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SUN win

30%

Draw

33%

EVE win

37%

Score pick

1–1

most likely 1–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Everton in Gameweek 26: Sunderland 30%, draw 33%, Everton 37%. The score pick is Sunderland 1–1 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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SUN 30%

DRAW 33%

EVE 37%

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, EVE goals across

SUN ↓	EVE 0	EVE 1	EVE 2	EVE 3	EVE 4	EVE 5
SUN 0	15.0%	13.1%	8.1%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%
SUN 1	10.6%	15.0%	7.4%	2.7%	0.7%	0.2%
SUN 2	5.6%	6.1%	3.4%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
SUN 3	1.7%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
SUN 4	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
SUN 5	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.1%.

Your call

Sunderland

Everton

AI calls

1–1

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.91 — 1.10

★ MODE

1–1

15.0%

0–0

15.0%

0–1

13.1%

1–0

10.6%

0–2

8.1%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

33%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

42%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Sunderland

Attack ranks #19 and defence #16 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Everton

Attack ranks #16, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 0.91–1.10.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW26 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Sunderland

4-5-1