Arsenal v Newcastle United
Who will win Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, NEW goals across
| ARS ↓ | NEW 0 | NEW 1 | NEW 2 | NEW 3 | NEW 4 | NEW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 1 | 11.1% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 2 | 13.4% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 3 | 9.8% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 4 | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.5%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Raya
- DEF
- Gabriel, Konsa, Calafiori, White
- MID
- Rice, Ødegaard, Madueke, Tzolis, Bruno G.
- FWD
- Havertz
- Saka — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Dowman — Suspended until 29 Nov
- GK
- Horníček
- DEF
- Hall, Dedić, Schär, Burn
- MID
- Barnes, N.Gonzalez, Willock, J.Murphy, Elanga
- FWD
- Osula
- J.Ramsey — Suspended until 21 Nov
- Jaouen — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
- Livramento — Knee injury - Unknown return date
- Joelinton — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
- L.Miley 75% — Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
- Fernandez-Pardo 75% — Illness - 75% chance of playing
Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.