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Sat 23 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW22 · model pl-dc-v2

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 22, from expected goals of 1.11 to 1.55. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
CRY win
30%
Draw
29%
TOT win
41%
Score pick
0–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur?

The Onside model makes Tottenham Hotspur the more likely winner of Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 22: Crystal Palace 30%, draw 29%, Tottenham Hotspur 41%. The score pick is Crystal Palace 0–1 Tottenham Hotspur, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CRY goals down, TOT goals across

CRY ↓TOT 0TOT 1TOT 2TOT 3TOT 4TOT 5
CRY 08.4%9.4%8.4%4.3%1.7%0.5%
CRY 16.3%13.5%9.3%4.8%1.9%0.6%
CRY 24.3%6.7%5.2%2.7%1.0%0.3%
CRY 31.6%2.5%1.9%1.0%0.4%0.1%
CRY 40.4%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
CRY 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Your call
AI calls
0–1
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.11 — 1.55
★ MODE
1–1
13.5%
0–1
9.4%
1–2
9.3%
0–0
8.4%
0–2
8.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
50%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #14 and defence #19 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #11, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.11–1.55.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW22 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace
5-4-1
GK
Benitez
DEF
Mitchell, Richards, Canvot, Khalaili, Disasi
MID
Wharton, Kamada, Yeremy, McNeil
FWD
Strand Larsen
  • Mateta — Suspended until 2 Dec
  • Sarr — Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Tomiyasu — Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Chadi Riad — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Uche — has returned to Getafe CF
  • Strand Larsen 75% — Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Timber 75% — Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL CRY LINE-UP →
Tottenham Hotspur
3-5-2
GK
Kinsky
DEF
Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson
MID
Tonali, Gray, Kudus, Fernandes, Tel
FWD
Marmoush, Solanke
  • Richarlison — not included in squad.
  • Sávio — Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Tosin — Calf injury - Unknown return date
  • Bergvall — Knee injury - Expected back 31 Oct
  • Mudryk — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL TOT LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW9Spurs vs Crystal Palace prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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