What is the predicted score for Everton vs Brentford?

The model's score pick is Everton 1–1 Brentford; the single most probable scoreline is 1–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 23 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW22 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Brentford

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 22, from expected goals of 1.10 to 1.16. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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EVE win

33%

Draw

31%

BRE win

36%

Score pick

1–1

most likely 1–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Brentford?

The Onside model makes Brentford the more likely winner of Everton vs Brentford in Gameweek 22: Everton 33%, draw 31%, Brentford 36%. The score pick is Everton 1–1 Brentford, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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EVE 33%

DRAW 31%

BRE 36%

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, BRE goals across

EVE ↓	BRE 0	BRE 1	BRE 2	BRE 3	BRE 4	BRE 5
EVE 0	12.0%	10.5%	7.0%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%
EVE 1	9.9%	14.9%	7.7%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%
EVE 2	6.3%	7.3%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%
EVE 3	2.3%	2.7%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
EVE 4	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
EVE 5	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.2%.

Your call

Everton

Brentford

AI calls

1–1

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.10 — 1.16

★ MODE

1–1

14.9%

0–0

12.0%

0–1

10.5%

1–0

9.9%

1–2

7.7%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

39%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

47%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Everton

Attack ranks #16 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Brentford

Attack ranks #6, defence #8. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.10–1.16.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW22 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Everton

4-5-1