Who will win Brighton vs Manchester City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BHA goals down, MCI goals across
| BHA ↓ | MCI 0 | MCI 1 | MCI 2 | MCI 3 | MCI 4 | MCI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA 0 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| BHA 1 | 5.1% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| BHA 2 | 5.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| BHA 3 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| BHA 4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BHA 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.
Brighton v Manchester City
Onside's model gives Brighton a 40% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 22, with 26% on the draw and 34% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 2–1 Manchester City, from expected goals of 1.63 to 1.62. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).