What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Manchester City?

The model's score pick is Brighton 2–1 Manchester City; the single most probable scoreline is 1–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 23 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW22 · model pl-dc-v2

Brighton v Manchester City

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 22, from expected goals of 1.67 to 1.33. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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BHA win

48%

Draw

25%

MCI win

27%

Score pick

2–1

most likely 1–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brighton vs Manchester City?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Brighton vs Manchester City in Gameweek 22: Brighton 48%, draw 25%, Manchester City 27%. The score pick is Brighton 2–1 Manchester City, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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BHA 48%

DRAW 25%

MCI 27%

Every scoreline, priced

BHA goals down, MCI goals across

BHA ↓	MCI 0	MCI 1	MCI 2	MCI 3	MCI 4	MCI 5
BHA 0	6.3%	5.3%	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
BHA 1	7.0%	12.4%	7.4%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%
BHA 2	6.9%	9.2%	6.2%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
BHA 3	3.9%	5.1%	3.4%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%
BHA 4	1.6%	2.2%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
BHA 5	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Your call

Brighton

Manchester City

AI calls

2–1

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.67 — 1.33

★ MODE

1–1

12.4%

2–1

9.2%

1–2

7.4%

1–0

7.0%

2–0

6.9%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

58%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Brighton

Attack ranks #1 and defence #2 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Manchester City

Attack ranks #2, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.67–1.33.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW22 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Brighton

5-4-1