What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Ipswich Town?

The model's score pick is Aston Villa 2–1 Ipswich Town; the single most probable scoreline is 1–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 30 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW23 · model pl-dc-v2

Aston Villa v Ipswich Town

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 23, from expected goals of 2.06 to 1.09. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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AVL win

55%

Draw

23%

IPS win

22%

Score pick

2–1

most likely 1–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Aston Villa vs Ipswich Town?

The Onside model makes Aston Villa the more likely winner of Aston Villa vs Ipswich Town in Gameweek 23: Aston Villa 55%, draw 23%, Ipswich Town 22%. The score pick is Aston Villa 2–1 Ipswich Town, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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AVL 55%

DRAW 23%

IPS 22%

Every scoreline, priced

AVL goals down, IPS goals across

AVL ↓	IPS 0	IPS 1	IPS 2	IPS 3	IPS 4	IPS 5
AVL 0	5.4%	3.5%	2.6%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
AVL 1	7.7%	10.8%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
AVL 2	9.1%	9.9%	5.4%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%
AVL 3	6.2%	6.8%	3.7%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
AVL 4	3.2%	3.5%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
AVL 5	1.3%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.9%.

Your call

Aston Villa

Ipswich Town

AI calls

2–1

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

2.06 — 1.09

★ MODE

1–1

10.8%

2–1

9.9%

2–0

9.1%

1–0

7.7%

3–1

6.8%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

61%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Aston Villa

Attack ranks #10 and defence #9 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Ipswich Town

Attack ranks #12, defence #20. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.06–1.09.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW23 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa

4-5-1