Manchester City v Arsenal
Who will win Manchester City vs Arsenal?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, ARS goals across
| MCI ↓ | ARS 0 | ARS 1 | ARS 2 | ARS 3 | ARS 4 | ARS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| MCI 1 | 8.6% | 14.5% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| MCI 2 | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| MCI 3 | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| MCI 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| MCI 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Donnarumma
- DEF
- Rúben, Matheus N., Gvardiol, Guéhi
- MID
- Ndiaye, Anderson, Enzo, Doku, Cherki
- FWD
- Haaland
- Semenyo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.
- GK
- Raya
- DEF
- Gabriel, Konsa, Calafiori, White
- MID
- Rice, Ødegaard, Madueke, Tzolis, Bruno G.
- FWD
- Havertz
- Saka — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Dowman — Suspended until 29 Nov
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.
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