What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Fulham?

The model's score pick is Bournemouth 1–0 Fulham; the single most probable scoreline is 1–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 30 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW23 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Fulham

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 23, from expected goals of 1.57 to 0.98. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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BOU win

48%

Draw

27%

FUL win

25%

Score pick

1–0

most likely 1–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Bournemouth vs Fulham?

The Onside model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Fulham in Gameweek 23: Bournemouth 48%, draw 27%, Fulham 25%. The score pick is Bournemouth 1–0 Fulham, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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BOU 48%

DRAW 27%

FUL 25%

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, FUL goals across

BOU ↓	FUL 0	FUL 1	FUL 2	FUL 3	FUL 4	FUL 5
BOU 0	9.3%	6.2%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
BOU 1	10.9%	13.4%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
BOU 2	9.7%	9.4%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
BOU 3	5.1%	4.9%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
BOU 4	2.0%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
BOU 5	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Your call

Bournemouth

Fulham

AI calls

1–0

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.57 — 0.98

★ MODE

1–1

13.4%

1–0

10.9%

2–0

9.7%

2–1

9.4%

0–0

9.3%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

47%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

51%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Bournemouth

Attack ranks #7 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Fulham

Attack ranks #18, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.57–0.98.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW23 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth

4-5-1