What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Everton?

The model's score pick is Liverpool 1–0 Everton; the single most probable scoreline is 1–0.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 30 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW23 · model pl-dc-v2

Liverpool v Everton

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 23, from expected goals of 1.48 to 0.76. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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LIV win

50%

Draw

29%

EVE win

21%

Score pick

1–0

most likely 1–0

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Liverpool vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Liverpool the more likely winner of Liverpool vs Everton in Gameweek 23: Liverpool 50%, draw 29%, Everton 21%. The score pick is Liverpool 1–0 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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LIV 50%

DRAW 29%

EVE 21%

Every scoreline, priced

LIV goals down, EVE goals across

LIV ↓	EVE 0	EVE 1	EVE 2	EVE 3	EVE 4	EVE 5
LIV 0	12.0%	6.6%	3.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
LIV 1	14.3%	13.4%	4.5%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
LIV 2	11.7%	8.9%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
LIV 3	5.8%	4.4%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
LIV 4	2.1%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
LIV 5	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.4%.

Your call

Liverpool

Everton

AI calls

1–0

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.48 — 0.76

★ MODE

1–0

14.3%

1–1

13.4%

0–0

12.0%

2–0

11.7%

2–1

8.9%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

39%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

43%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Liverpool

Attack ranks #5 and defence #3 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Everton

Attack ranks #16, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.48–0.76.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW23 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Liverpool

4-5-1