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Sat 30 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW23 · model pl-dc-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 23, from expected goals of 1.61 to 0.81. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
TOT win
47%
Draw
29%
SUN win
24%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 1–0
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland?

The Onside model makes Tottenham Hotspur the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland in Gameweek 23: Tottenham Hotspur 47%, draw 29%, Sunderland 24%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 1–0 Sunderland, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, SUN goals across

TOT ↓SUN 0SUN 1SUN 2SUN 3SUN 4SUN 5
TOT 010.3%5.8%2.9%0.8%0.2%0.0%
TOT 112.9%13.0%4.7%1.3%0.3%0.0%
TOT 211.5%9.3%3.8%1.0%0.2%0.0%
TOT 36.2%5.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
TOT 42.5%2.0%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
TOT 50.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.61 — 0.81
★ MODE
1–1
13.0%
1–0
12.9%
2–0
11.5%
0–0
10.3%
2–1
9.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
44%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
46%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #11 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Sunderland
Attack ranks #19, defence #16. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.61–0.81.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW23 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur
3-5-2
GK
Kinsky
DEF
Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson
MID
Tonali, Gray, Kudus, Fernandes, Tel
FWD
Marmoush, Solanke
  • Richarlison — not included in squad.
  • Sávio — Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Tosin — Calf injury - Unknown return date
  • Bergvall — Knee injury - Expected back 31 Oct
  • Mudryk — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL TOT LINE-UP →
Sunderland
4-5-1
GK
Roefs
DEF
Reinildo, Hume, O'Nien, Mukiele
MID
Xhaka, E.Le Fée, Sadiki, N.Angulo, Rigg
FWD
Brobbey
  • Ballard — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
  • Alderete — Suspended until 21 Nov
  • Diarra — Muscular injury - Unknown return date
  • Mundle — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Mukiele 75% — Concussion - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL SUN LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW12Sunderland vs Spurs prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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