QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland?

The Onside model makes Sunderland the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland in Gameweek 23: Tottenham Hotspur 35%, draw 29%, Sunderland 36%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 10 Sunderland, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, SUN goals across

TOTSUN 0SUN 1SUN 2SUN 3SUN 4SUN 5
TOT 09.1%6.8%4.6%1.7%0.5%0.1%
TOT 19.8%13.8%6.8%2.5%0.7%0.1%
TOT 28.3%9.1%5.0%1.8%0.5%0.1%
TOT 34.1%4.5%2.5%0.9%0.2%0.1%
TOT 41.5%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
TOT 50.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Sat 30 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW23 · model pl-dc-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland

Onside's model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 35% chance of beating Sunderland in Gameweek 23, with 29% on the draw and 36% on an away win. The score prediction is Tottenham Hotspur 10 Sunderland, from expected goals of 1.48 to 1.09. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Tottenham Hotspur
35%
Draw
29%
Sunderland
36%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.481.09
★ MODE
11
13.8%
10
9.8%
21
9.1%
00
9.1%
20
8.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
48%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
53%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #12 and defence #12 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Sunderland
Attack ranks #16, defence #17. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.481.09.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW12Sunderland vs Spurs predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland Prediction — GW23 Score