Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, MCI goals across
| ARS ↓ | MCI 0 | MCI 1 | MCI 2 | MCI 3 | MCI 4 | MCI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| ARS 1 | 9.0% | 13.4% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| ARS 2 | 8.1% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| ARS 3 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 4 | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.
Arsenal v Manchester City
Onside's model gives Arsenal a 45% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 12, with 29% on the draw and 26% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 1–0 Manchester City, from expected goals of 1.56 to 1.15. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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