Arsenal v Manchester City
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, MCI goals across
| ARS ↓ | MCI 0 | MCI 1 | MCI 2 | MCI 3 | MCI 4 | MCI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 9.6% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 1 | 11.2% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| ARS 2 | 9.8% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 3 | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 4 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Raya
- DEF
- Gabriel, Calafiori, Konsa, White
- MID
- Rice, Ødegaard, Madueke, Tzolis, Bruno G.
- FWD
- Havertz
- Saka — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Dowman — Suspended until 29 Nov
- Konsa 75% — Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
- GK
- Donnarumma
- DEF
- Rúben, Matheus N., Gvardiol, Guéhi
- MID
- Ndiaye, Anderson, Enzo, Doku, Cherki
- FWD
- Haaland
- Semenyo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.
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