Who will win Brighton vs Newcastle United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BHA goals down, NEW goals across
| BHA ↓ | NEW 0 | NEW 1 | NEW 2 | NEW 3 | NEW 4 | NEW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA 0 | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BHA 1 | 5.5% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| BHA 2 | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| BHA 3 | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| BHA 4 | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| BHA 5 | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.0%.
Brighton v Newcastle United
Onside's model gives Brighton a 57% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 12, with 23% on the draw and 20% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 2–1 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 2.27 to 1.29. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).